Back to the Future

20 November 2009 By Don 182

It's remarkable how similar today’s PC/Facebook/social games seem to be to the early generations of traditional videogames. I think their evolution will show similar patterns.

When I first came to EA, text adventures and light 2-D graphic games existed because that is all technology allowed us. Designers had to be clever back then because the fidelity was awful and their only chance to grab players' hearts and minds was through great game design and well-crafted fun. Games like Mule or Seven Cities of Gold were terrific game designs despite these limitations.

Gradually, game technology evolved beyond 2-D and 2-D sprites to full-fledged 3-D. (As a side note, it's funny to think about the rage in Tamagachi games in the early/mid-'90s and, relate it to the likes of most social games today…. Does anyone remember Seaman?!) As hardware grew faster and more powerful, the market evolved and players demanded better fidelity and deeply evolved gameplay.

I think the current casual-game market will follow a similar path, with one big exception: the addition of social gaming features will in some ways replace elements of design from other areas. Rather than adopt hard-core-gamer features and steep learning curves, the social gaming features will take the highest priority in the evolutionary process. Sure, I still think that fidelity and technical sophistication will increase over time, but it does not appear to be as important and it will be interesting to watch the trends in social gaming evolve. This category is still in its youth, if not its infancy, and there's a long way to go in the lifecycle. What’s more, the whole category of mobile Web really hasn’t even become a player here yet, and it will.

With history in mind, here are a few predictions:

Fidelity demands will increase
Last year, social, primarily text adventures like Mafia Wars exploded and recently the movement has been towards more graphic 2-D Flash games like Farmtown and all the “Villes.” As I tirelessly spend my extra downtime playing Fishville on Facebook and send all my friends hermit crabs, I can’t help but think of playing Seaman in 1996! Light 3-D games are already showing up and fidelity and user expectations will continue to increase. In satisfying this market, however, evolution of social features will be the bigger driver.

Same old same old will get old
Just like in traditional videogame business, you can only get away with something a couple times before it gets old. So many of the current social games are really just versions of the same thing. What is more, the preponderence of similar games and outright cannibilization of ideas and features is amazing to me. In any other creative business, lawsuits would be flying over all the IP "cloning" going on in this space. As the business matures, I think the winners will be those whose creativity and technology can innovate to lead these players in new, fresh directions, not just rip-off ideas from elsewhere or provide the same experiences already available.

Mobile Web will start to take over
True socialization features have only just started appearing on the iPhone and other smartphone mobile devices. As the Web continues to go mobile, exploiting social features on these devices will become increasingly important. Further, consider the added potential for new designs and features that can merge with other applications on the mobile side (like GPS). Those who can combine their experience with mobile game design and social/service features stand to make huge gains.

And one prediction a little more off the wall....

EA will be all free-to-play in the next five years
Years ago, and not necessarily by intention, EA abandoned its charter to be the most innovative IP creator in the industry. (It seems to me that Activision has clearly grabbed this mantle.) With this in mind and considering EA's recent acquisition of Playfish, it won’t surprise me at all to see EA adopting almost entirely a free-to-play model in the next five years. The company will still do a couple of "major feature" releases a year, I’m sure, but the vast majority of revenue just might come from “freemium” business models in the years to come. The sports line-up is particularly well suited for this. It’s gotta be hard to see continued revenue growth in game lines that are now over ten years old. Perhaps basic sports engines that are free and come with limited amounts of data can be augmented and monetized through virtual transactions via the purchase of team sets, better players, uniforms, coaches, etc. I mean, how much would I pay to put Michael Jordan on my 2010 Golden State Warriors roster? Don’t even get me started!